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College StatisticsAnswered question
kituoti126 kituoti126 2022-11-02

Solve PDE using method of characteristics with non-local boundary conditions.
Given the population model by the following linear first order PDE in u(a,t) with constants b and μ:
u a + u t = μ t u a , t > 0
u ( a , 0 ) = u 0 ( a ) a 0
u ( 0 , t ) = F ( t ) = b 0 u ( a , t ) d a
We can split the integral in two with our non-local boundary data:
F ( t ) = b 0 t u ( a , t ) d a + b t u ( a , t ) d a
Choosing the characteristic coordinates ( ξ , τ ) and re-arranging the expression to form the normal to the solution surface we have the following equation with initial conditions:
( u a , u t , 1 ) ( 1 , 1 , μ t u ) = 0
x ( 0 ) = ξ , t ( 0 ) = 0 , u ( 0 ) = u 0 ( ξ )
Characteristic equations:
d a d τ = 1 , d t d τ = 1 , d u d τ = μ t u
Solving each of these ODE's in τ gives the following:
( 1 ) d a = d τ ( 2 ) d t = d τ ( 3 ) d u = μ t u d τ
a = τ + F ( ξ ) t = τ + F ( ξ )
a = τ + ξ t = τ
d u = μ τ u d τ
1 u d u = μ τ d τ
ln u = 1 2 μ τ 2 + F ( ξ )
u = G ( ξ ) e 1 2 μ τ 2
u = u 0 ( ξ ) e 1 2 μ τ 2
Substituting back the original coordinates we can re-write this expression with a coordinate change:
ξ = a t τ = t
u ( a , t ) = u 0 ( a t ) e 1 2 t 2
Now this is where I get stuck, how do I use the boundary data to come up with a well-posed solution?
u ( 0 , t ) = u 0 ( t ) e 1 2 μ t 2 = b 0 t u ( a , t ) d a + b t u ( a , t ) d a

College StatisticsAnswered question
Emmanuel Giles Emmanuel Giles 2022-11-02

Using a "population" consisting of probabilities to predict accuracy of sample
Since I'm not sure if the title explains my question well enough I've come up with an example myself:
Let's say I live in a country where every citizen goes to work everyday and every citizen has the choice to go by bus or by train (every citizen makes this choice everyday again - there are almost no citizens who always go by train and never by bus, and vice-versa).
I've done a lot of sampling and I have data on one million citizens about their behaviour in the past 1000 days. So, I calculate the "probability" per citizen of going by train on a single day. I can also calculate the average of those calculated probabilities of all citizens, let's say the average probability of a citizen going by train is 0.27. I figured that most citizens have tendencies around this number (most citizens have an individual probability between 0.22 and 0.32 of going by train for example).
Now, I started sampling an unknown person (but known to be living in the same country) and after asking him 10 consecutive days whether he went by train or by bus, I know that this person went to his work by train 4 times, and by bus 6 times.
My final question: how can I use my (accurate) data on one million citizens to approximate this person's probability of going by train?
I know that if I do the calculation the other way around, so, calculate the probability of this event occurring given the fact that I know this person's REAL probability is 0.4 this results in: 0.4 4 0.6 6 10 C 4 =∼ 25 %. I could calculate this probability for all possible probabilities between 0.00 and 1.00 (so, 0 % 100 % without any numbers in between) and sum them all, which sums to about 910%. I could set this to 100% (dividing by 9.1) and set all other percentages accordingly (dividing everything by 9.1 - so, our 25% becomes ~2.75%) and come up with a weighted sum: 2.75 % 0.4 + X % 0.41 etc., but this must be wrong since I'm not taking my accurate samples of the population into account.

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