Understanding Inferential Statistics through Examples

Recent questions in Inferential Statistics
Inferential StatisticsAnswered question
Charles MugishaCharles Mugisha2022-09-21

Inferential StatisticsAnswered question
wijii4 wijii4 2022-09-17

Conditional Probability and Independence nonsense in a problem
The statement:
Suppose that a patient tests positive for a disease affecting 1% of the population. For a patient who has the disease, there is a 95% chance of testing positive, and for a patient who doesn't has the disease, there is a 95% chance of testing negative. The patient gets a second, independent, test done, and again tests positive. Find the probability that the patient has the disease.
The problem:
I can solve this problem, but I'm unable to understand what is wrong with the following:
Let T i be the event that the patient tests positive in the i-th test, and let D be the event that the patient has the disease.
The problem says that P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = 0.95 2 0.01 + 0.05 2 0.99 = 0.0115, because the tests are independent.
By law of total probability we know that:
P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = 0.95 2 0.01 + 0.05 2 0.99 = 0.0115
Replacing, and assuming conditional independence given D, we have:
P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = 0.95 2 0.01 + 0.05 2 0.99 = 0.0115
This is the correct result, but now let's consider that:
P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = P ( T 1 ) 2
We know that P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = P ( T 1 ) 2 for all i because of symmetry, so we have P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = P ( T 1 ) 2 . Again, by law of total probability:
P ( T 1 ) = 0.95 0.01 + 0.05 0.99 0.059
P ( T 1 ) = 0.95 0.01 + 0.05 0.99 0.059
So we have:
P ( T 1 , T 2 ) = P ( T 1 ) 2 0.059 2 0.003481
The second approach is wrong, but it seems legitimate to me, and I'm unable to find what's wrong.
Thank's for your help, you make self studying easier.

In simple terms, inferential statistics is an approach where you use measurements from the sample of specific subjects as you conduct an experiment. The purpose is to make an outcome based on generalization regarding the greater population of subjects. You may use equations if there are questions that are related to a particular approach. You can get inferential statistics help as we provide a list of answers with good samples to start with. There are related topics like correlation problems that will help you with financial statistics and the coordination of variables