The article “Evaluating Vent Manifold Inerting Requirements: Flash Point Modelin

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2021-10-19

The article “Evaluating Vent Manifold Inerting Requirements: Flash Point Modeling for Organic Acid-Water Mixtures” presents a model to predict the flash point (in \(\displaystyle{F}^{{\circ}}\)) of a mixture of water, acetic acid, propionic acid, and butyric acid from the concentrations (in weight %) of the three acids. The results are as follows. The variable “Butyric Acid \(\displaystyle\times\) Acetic Acid” is the interaction between butyric acid concentration and acetic acid concentration.
\(\begin{array}{|c|c|}\hline text{Predictor} & \text{Coef} & \text{SE Coef} & T & P \\ \hline \text{Constant} & 267.53 & 11.306 & 23.66 & 0.000 \\ \hline \text{Acetic Acid} & -1.5926 & 0.1295 & -12.30 & 0.000 \\ \hline \text{Propionic Acid} & -1.3897 & 0.1260 & -11.03 & 0.000 \\ \hline \text{Butyric Acid} & -1.0934 & 0.1164 & -9.39 & 0.000 \\ \hline \text{Butyric Acid} \times\text{Acetic Acid} & -0.002658 & 0.001145 & -2.32 & 0.034 \\ \hline \end{array}\)
a) Predict the flash point for a mixture that is 30% acetic acid, 35% propionic acid, and 30% butyric acid. (Note: In the model, 30% is represented by 30, not by 0.30.)
b) Someone asks by how much the predicted flash point will change if the concentration of acetic acid is increased by 10% while the other concentrations are kept constant. Is it possible to answer this question? If so, answer it. If not, explain why not.
c) Someone asks by how much the predicted flash point will change if the concentration of propionic acid is increased by 10% while the other concentrations are kept constant. Is it possible to answer this question? If so, answer it. If not, explain why not.

Answer & Explanation

Jaylen Fountain

Jaylen Fountain

Skilled2021-10-20Added 169 answers

Step 1
Let x1 represent acetic acid, x2 represent proportionic acid and x3 represent butyric acid.
We note that the predictors are Constant, Acetic Acid, Propionic Acid, Butyric Acid and the product of butyric acid and acetic acid.
y=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x3+β4x1x3
The estimates of β0,,β4 are given in the column "SE Coef" of the Minitab output, which then results in the regression equation:
y^=267.531.5926x11.3897x21.0934x30.002658x1x3
Evaluate the regression equation at
x1=30
x2=35
x3=35
y^=267.531.5926(30)1.3897(35)1.0934(30)0.002658(30)(30)
Thus the predicted flash point is 135.9183F
Step 2
Let x1 represent acetic acid, x2 represent proportionic acid and x3 represent butyric acid.
We note that the predictors are Constant, Acetic Acid, Propionic Acid, Butyric Acid and the product of butyric acid and acetic acid.
y=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x3+β4x1x3
The acetic acid is represented bu x1. Since x1 occurs in the interaction term β4x1x3 while the value of x3 is unknown, we cannot determine the change in the predicted flash point y^ when the value of x1 changes.
Step 3
Let x1 represent acetic acid, x2 represent proportionic acid and x3 represent butyric acid.
We note that the predictors are Constant, Acetic Acid, Propionic Acid, Butyric Acid and the product of butyric acid and acetic acid.
y=β0+β1x1+β2x2+β3x3+β4x1x3
We are intersted in the propionic acid, which is represented by the variable x2. Since x2 does not occur in any interaction termsm it is possible to determine the change in the predicted y-values.
The slope with respect to Propionic acid is given in the row "Propionic acid" and in the column "Coef" of the given MINITAB output:
β2^=1.3897
When the x-values corresponding to Propionic acid differ by 10, then the predicted y-values will differ by 10 times the slope with respect to Propionic acid.
10β2^=10(1.3897)=13.897
Thus the predicted flashpoints will differ by 13.897F

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