Binomial probabilities in a production process. Screws are made in a production process where the probability of any one screw being defective is constant at p=0.1 i.e. 10% of screws produced are defective.

Kamila Frye

Kamila Frye

Answered question

2022-10-26

Binomial probabilities in a production process
Screws are made in a production process where the probability of any one screw being defective is constant at p = 0.1 i.e. 10% of screws produced are defective.
Screws are placed in bags of 15 at the end of the process. At various intervals a bag is checked and the process is stopped if more than 3 screws in that bag are found to be defective.
I am trying to answer the question "What is the probability that there will be sufficient defective screws to stop the process?".
I am using a sum of binomial probabilities and have calculated the answer to be 0.0555. Does this appear correct?

Answer & Explanation

rcampas4i

rcampas4i

Beginner2022-10-27Added 22 answers

Step 1
Your Parameters for the binomial Distribution are p = 0.1 , n = 15. You have to compute the probability that the random variable X denoting "number of screws are defect" has a value greater or equals 3.
Step 2
That means calculate P ( X > 2 ) with the binomial Distribution.
Rubi Garner

Rubi Garner

Beginner2022-10-28Added 4 answers

Step 1
A somewhat improved way to answer this problem is to ask what is the probability that a bag will NOT stop the process. For this you have a binomial distribution with p = 0.1, n = 15 and you want to compute the probability that the number of defective screws is either 0, 1, or 2. (Easy to do, if you know the formula for the binomial distribution).
Step 2
Then 1 minus that is the probability that the bag stops the process. This is easier than computing directly for 3 up to 15 defective screws.

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