Intuitive way to arrive at the maximizing argument for the binomial probability. The binomial probability term q^n(1-q)^{N-n} is maximized when q=n/N. This can be easily arrived at by differentiating the given probability term with respect to q. Is there a more intuitive way to arrive at this value of q that maximizes the probability ?

allbleachix

allbleachix

Answered question

2022-09-14

Intuitive way to arrive at the maximizing argument for the binomial probability
The binomial probability term q n ( 1 q ) N n is maximized when q = n / N. This can be easily arrived at by differentiating the given probability term with respect to q. Is there a more intuitive way to arrive at this value of q that maximizes the probability ?

Answer & Explanation

incibracy5x

incibracy5x

Beginner2022-09-15Added 21 answers

Step 1
Yes; ( N n ) q n ( 1 q ) N n is the probability of obtaining n successes in N independent trials given a probability of success for each trial of q.
Step 2
To maximize the probability of obtaining n successes, choose q such that the expected number of successes in N trials is n, i.e., q = n / N.
Presley Esparza

Presley Esparza

Beginner2022-09-16Added 2 answers

Step 1
This is how I usually explain the situation:
I repeat some experiment (make up one that makes the most sense) 1000 (or any large number) and find that I get a particular result 50 times. What do you think the probability of the result is?
Almost everyone immediately would say 50 1000 .
Step 2
I then use your result to actually show that this makes the most sense.
I carefully avoid terms like a-posterori or maximum likelihood

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