"If 99% of all new applicants tell the truth on their applications, then are submitted to a polygraph test which is 90% accurate what is the probability that: for an applicant who did not lie his test will confirm this for an applicant who did lie, the test will confirm this? for an applicant who did lie he will pass the polygraph for an applicant who is truthful will pass the polygraph for an applicant who failed the polygraph, lied on the application for an applicant who passed the polygraph, was fully truthful on his application How do I set up a 2-way contingency table or a tree diagram for these?"

Payton George

Payton George

Answered question

2022-10-31

If 99% of all new applicants tell the truth on their applications, then are submitted to a polygraph test which is 90% accurate what is the probability that:
for an applicant who did not lie his test will confirm this
for an applicant who did lie, the test will confirm this?
for an applicant who did lie he will pass the polygraph
for an applicant who is truthful will pass the polygraph
for an applicant who failed the polygraph,
lied on the application for an applicant who passed the polygraph,
was fully truthful on his application
How do I set up a 2-way contingency table or a tree diagram for these?

Answer & Explanation

getrdone07tl

getrdone07tl

Beginner2022-11-01Added 23 answers

Draw a tree diagram as follows. From the "root," draw two downward going branches. Label the end of one L, for "lied on the application," and the end of the other T.
Write 0.01 along the branch that goes to L, and 0.99 along the branch that goes to T.
From the node labelled L, draw two downward-going branches, leading to two nodes. Label the end of one branch P, for "passed the test," and the other F. Along the branch that leads from L to P, write 0.1. Along the branch that leads to F, write 0.9.
From the node labelled T, draw two downward-going branches, leading to two new nodes you will label P and F. Along the branch that leads from T to P, write 0.9. Along the other branch, write 0.1.

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