# Dree rolls a strike in 6 out of the 10 frames of bowling. What is the experimental probability that Dree will roll a strike in the first frame of the next game? Explain why a number cube would not be a good way to simulate this situation.

Question
Dree rolls a strike in 6 out of the 10 frames of bowling. What is the experimental probability that Dree will roll a strike in the first frame of the next game? Explain why a number cube would not be a good way to simulate this situation.

2020-12-18
There were 10 frames bowled and thus there are 10 possible outcomes.
# of possible outcomes = 10
6 strikes were rolled and thus there are 6 favorable outcomes.
# of favorable outcomes = 6
The probability is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes:
P(strike)= #of favorable outcomes/# of possible outcomes=$$\displaystyle\frac{{6}}{{10}}=\frac{{3}}{{5}}={0.6}={60}\%$$
We note that the denominator of the probability is 5, which means that the number of possible outcomes in a simulation would need to be a. multiple of 5.
P(strike) = = : =06 = 60%
However, a number cube has 6 possible outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and 6 is not a multiple of 5, thus a number cube will not be a good way to simulation.

### Relevant Questions

Taylor has a set of 32 cards. There are 16 yellow cards and 16 brown cards in the set. The first 6 cards that Taylor draws are yellow, brown, yellow, yellow, yellow, and brown. Based on these results, what is the probability that the next card he draws will be yellow?
The table below shows the number of people for three different race groups who were shot by police that were either armed or unarmed. These values are very close to the exact numbers. They have been changed slightly for each student to get a unique problem.
Suspect was Armed:
Black - 543
White - 1176
Hispanic - 378
Total - 2097
Suspect was unarmed:
Black - 60
White - 67
Hispanic - 38
Total - 165
Total:
Black - 603
White - 1243
Hispanic - 416
Total - 2262
Give your answer as a decimal to at least three decimal places.
a) What percent are Black?
b) What percent are Unarmed?
c) In order for two variables to be Independent of each other, the P $$(A and B) = P(A) \cdot P(B) P(A and B) = P(A) \cdot P(B).$$
This just means that the percentage of times that both things happen equals the individual percentages multiplied together (Only if they are Independent of each other).
Therefore, if a person's race is independent of whether they were killed being unarmed then the percentage of black people that are killed while being unarmed should equal the percentage of blacks times the percentage of Unarmed. Let's check this. Multiply your answer to part a (percentage of blacks) by your answer to part b (percentage of unarmed).
Remember, the previous answer is only correct if the variables are Independent.
d) Now let's get the real percent that are Black and Unarmed by using the table?
If answer c is "significantly different" than answer d, then that means that there could be a different percentage of unarmed people being shot based on race. We will check this out later in the course.
Let's compare the percentage of unarmed shot for each race.
e) What percent are White and Unarmed?
f) What percent are Hispanic and Unarmed?
If you compare answers d, e and f it shows the highest percentage of unarmed people being shot is most likely white.
Why is that?
This is because there are more white people in the United States than any other race and therefore there are likely to be more white people in the table. Since there are more white people in the table, there most likely would be more white and unarmed people shot by police than any other race. This pulls the percentage of white and unarmed up. In addition, there most likely would be more white and armed shot by police. All the percentages for white people would be higher, because there are more white people. For example, the table contains very few Hispanic people, and the percentage of people in the table that were Hispanic and unarmed is the lowest percentage.
Think of it this way. If you went to a college that was 90% female and 10% male, then females would most likely have the highest percentage of A grades. They would also most likely have the highest percentage of B, C, D and F grades
The correct way to compare is "conditional probability". Conditional probability is getting the probability of something happening, given we are dealing with just the people in a particular group.
g) What percent of blacks shot and killed by police were unarmed?
h) What percent of whites shot and killed by police were unarmed?
i) What percent of Hispanics shot and killed by police were unarmed?
You can see by the answers to part g and h, that the percentage of blacks that were unarmed and killed by police is approximately twice that of whites that were unarmed and killed by police.
j) Why do you believe this is happening?
Do a search on the internet for reasons why blacks are more likely to be killed by police. Read a few articles on the topic. Write your response using the articles as references. Give the websites used in your response. Your answer should be several sentences long with at least one website listed. This part of this problem will be graded after the due date.
Several models have been proposed to explain the diversification of life during geological periods. According to Benton (1997), The diversification of marine families in the past 600 million years (Myr) appears to have followed two or three logistic curves, with equilibrium levels that lasted for up to 200 Myr. In contrast, continental organisms clearly show an exponential pattern of diversification, and although it is not clear whether the empirical diversification patterns are real or are artifacts of a poor fossil record, the latter explanation seems unlikely. In this problem, we will investigate three models fordiversification. They are analogous to models for populationgrowth, however, the quantities involved have a differentinterpretation. We denote by N(t) the diversification function,which counts the number of taxa as a function of time, and by rthe intrinsic rate of diversification.
(a) (Exponential Model) This model is described by $$\displaystyle{\frac{{{d}{N}}}{{{\left.{d}{t}\right.}}}}={r}_{{{e}}}{N}\ {\left({8.86}\right)}.$$ Solve (8.86) with the initial condition N(0) at time 0, and show that $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{e}}}$$ can be estimated from $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{e}}}={\frac{{{1}}}{{{t}}}}\ {\ln{\ }}{\left[{\frac{{{N}{\left({t}\right)}}}{{{N}{\left({0}\right)}}}}\right]}\ {\left({8.87}\right)}$$
(b) (Logistic Growth) This model is described by $$\displaystyle{\frac{{{d}{N}}}{{{\left.{d}{t}\right.}}}}={r}_{{{l}}}{N}\ {\left({1}\ -\ {\frac{{{N}}}{{{K}}}}\right)}\ {\left({8.88}\right)}$$ where K is the equilibrium value. Solve (8.88) with the initial condition N(0) at time 0, and show that $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{l}}}$$ can be estimated from $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{l}}}={\frac{{{1}}}{{{t}}}}\ {\ln{\ }}{\left[{\frac{{{K}\ -\ {N}{\left({0}\right)}}}{{{N}{\left({0}\right)}}}}\right]}\ +\ {\frac{{{1}}}{{{t}}}}\ {\ln{\ }}{\left[{\frac{{{N}{\left({t}\right)}}}{{{K}\ -\ {N}{\left({t}\right)}}}}\right]}\ {\left({8.89}\right)}$$ for $$\displaystyle{N}{\left({t}\right)}\ {<}\ {K}.$$
(c) Assume that $$\displaystyle{N}{\left({0}\right)}={1}$$ and $$\displaystyle{N}{\left({10}\right)}={1000}.$$ Estimate $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{e}}}$$ and $$\displaystyle{r}_{{{l}}}$$ for both $$\displaystyle{K}={1001}$$ and $$\displaystyle{K}={10000}.$$
(d) Use your answer in (c) to explain the following quote from Stanley (1979): There must be a general tendency for calculated values of $$\displaystyle{\left[{r}\right]}$$ to represent underestimates of exponential rates,because some radiation will have followed distinctly sigmoid paths during the interval evaluated.
(e) Explain why the exponential model is a good approximation to the logistic model when $$\displaystyle\frac{{N}}{{K}}$$ is small compared with 1.
A gambling book recommends the following "winning strategy" for the game of roulette. It recommends that a gambler bet $1 onred. If red appears (which has probablity 18/38), then the gamblershould take her$1 profit and quit. If the gambler loses this bet (which has probablity 20/38 of occurring), she should make additional \$1 bets on red on each of the next two spins of the roulette wheel and then quite. Let X denote the gambler's winnings when she quites.
(a) Find P{X > 0}.
(b) Are you concinved that the strategy is indeed a "winning" strategy? Explain your answer.
(c) Find E[X].
An oil prospector will drill a succession of holes in a given area to find a productive well. The probability that he is successful on a given trial is 0.2. What is the probability that the third hole drilled is the first to yield a productive well?
A radio station gives a pair of concert tickets to the 6th called who knows the birthday of the performer. For each person who calls, the probability is.75 of knowing the performer birthday. All calls are independent.
a. What is the PMF (Probability Mass Function) of L, the number of calls necessary to find the winner?
b. What is the probability of finding the winner on the 10th call?
c. What is the probability that the station will need 9 or more calls to find a winner?
The problem reads: Suppose $$\displaystyle{P}{\left({X}_{{1}}\right)}={.75}$$ and $$\displaystyle{P}{\left({Y}_{{2}}{\mid}{X}_{{1}}\right)}={.40}$$. What is the joint probability of $$\displaystyle{X}_{{1}}$$ and $$\displaystyle{Y}_{{2}}$$?
This is how I answered it. P($$\displaystyle{X}_{{1}}$$ and $$\displaystyle{Y}_{{2}}$$) $$\displaystyle={P}{\left({X}_{{1}}\right)}\times{P}{\left({Y}_{{1}}{\mid}{X}_{{1}}\right)}={.75}\times{.40}={0.3}.$$
What I don't understand is how do you get the $$\displaystyle{P}{\left({Y}_{{1}}{\mid}{X}_{{1}}\right)}$$? I am totally new to Statistices and I need to understand each part of the process in order to get the whole concept. Can anyone help me to understand why the P and X exist and what they represent?
Anthony is working for an engineering company that is building a Ferris wheel to be used at county fairs. He wants to create an algebraic model that describes the height of a rider on the wheel in terms of time. He knows that the diameter of the wheel will be 90 feet and that the axle will be built to stand 55 feet off the ground. He also knows they plan to set the wheel to make one rotation every 60 seconds. Write at least two equations that model the height of a rider in terms of t, seconds on the ride, assuming that when t = 0, the rider is at his or her lowest possible height. Explain why both equations are accurate.
Part 2:One of Anthony's co-workers says, "Sine and cosine are basically the same thing." Anthony is not so sure, and can see things either way. Provide one piece of evidence that would confirm the co-worker's point of view. Provide one piece of evidence that would refute it. Hint: It may be helpful to consider the domain and range of different functions, as well as the relationship of each of these functions to triangles in the unit circle
Case: Dr. Jung’s Diamonds Selection
With Christmas coming, Dr. Jung became interested in buying diamonds for his wife. After perusing the Web, he learned about the “4Cs” of diamonds: cut, color, clarity, and carat. He knew his wife wanted round-cut earrings mounted in white gold settings, so he immediately narrowed his focus to evaluating color, clarity, and carat for that style earring.
After a bit of searching, Dr. Jung located a number of earring sets that he would consider purchasing. But he knew the pricing of diamonds varied considerably. To assist in his decision making, Dr. Jung decided to use regression analysis to develop a model to predict the retail price of different sets of round-cut earrings based on their color, clarity, and carat scores. He assembled the data in the file Diamonds.xls for this purpose. Use this data to answer the following questions for Dr. Jung.
1) Prepare scatter plots showing the relationship between the earring prices (Y) and each of the potential independent variables. What sort of relationship does each plot suggest?
2) Let X1, X2, and X3 represent diamond color, clarity, and carats, respectively. If Dr. Jung wanted to build a linear regression model to estimate earring prices using these variables, which variables would you recommend that he use? Why?
3) Suppose Dr. Jung decides to use clarity (X2) and carats (X3) as independent variables in a regression model to predict earring prices. What is the estimated regression equation? What is the value of the R2 and adjusted-R2 statistics?
4) Use the regression equation identified in the previous question to create estimated prices for each of the earring sets in Dr. Jung’s sample. Which sets of earrings appear to be overpriced and which appear to be bargains? Based on this analysis, which set of earrings would you suggest that Dr. Jung purchase?
5) Dr. Jung now remembers that it sometimes helps to perform a square root transformation on the dependent variable in a regression problem. Modify your spreadsheet to include a new dependent variable that is the square root on the earring prices (use Excel’s SQRT( ) function). If Dr. Jung wanted to build a linear regression model to estimate the square root of earring prices using the same independent variables as before, which variables would you recommend that he use? Why?
1
6) Suppose Dr. Jung decides to use clarity (X2) and carats (X3) as independent variables in a regression model to predict the square root of the earring prices. What is the estimated regression equation? What is the value of the R2 and adjusted-R2 statistics?
7) Use the regression equation identified in the previous question to create estimated prices for each of the earring sets in Dr. Jung’s sample. (Remember, your model estimates the square root of the earring prices. So you must actually square the model’s estimates to convert them to price estimates.) Which sets of earring appears to be overpriced and which appear to be bargains? Based on this analysis, which set of earrings would you suggest that Dr. Jung purchase?
8) Dr. Jung now also remembers that it sometimes helps to include interaction terms in a regression model—where you create a new independent variable as the product of two of the original variables. Modify your spreadsheet to include three new independent variables, X4, X5, and X6, representing interaction terms where: X4 = X1 × X2, X5 = X1 × X3, and X6 = X2 × X3. There are now six potential independent variables. If Dr. Jung wanted to build a linear regression model to estimate the square root of earring prices using the same independent variables as before, which variables would you recommend that he use? Why?
9) Suppose Dr. Jung decides to use color (X1), carats (X3) and the interaction terms X4 (color * clarity) and X5 (color * carats) as independent variables in a regression model to predict the square root of the earring prices. What is the estimated regression equation? What is the value of the R2 and adjusted-R2 statistics?
10) Use the regression equation identified in the previous question to create estimated prices for each of the earring sets in Dr. Jung’s sample. (Remember, your model estimates the square root of the earring prices. So you must square the model’s estimates to convert them to actual price estimates.) Which sets of earrings appear to be overpriced and which appear to be bargains? Based on this analysis, which set of earrings would you suggest that Dr. Jung purchase?