"In a past paper question for maths, I have encountered the following problem which is confusing me. The question states that: When drivers approach crossroads, a survey shows that: 40% went straight on; 35% turned left; 25% turned right. Assume that the drivers choose direction independently. Find the probability that the next three vehicles approaching the crossroads will all turn left given that none turns right. P(all left∣none turn right)=0.353(1−0.25)3= 0.102 (3 s.f) This is where I'm confused. For independent events should it not be the following: P(all left∣none turn right)=P(all left)=0.353=0.0429 (3 s.f)? Edit: I have realized I misunderstood the independence part of the question, but I'm still left confused over the answer. From the equation P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B), how does P(A∩B) eq

Gavyn Whitehead

Gavyn Whitehead

Answered question

2022-09-05

In a past paper question for maths, I have encountered the following problem which is confusing me. The question states that:
When drivers approach crossroads, a survey shows that:
40% went straight on;
35% turned left;
25% turned right.
Assume that the drivers choose direction independently.
Find the probability that the next three vehicles approaching the crossroads will all turn left given that none turns right.
The answer provided is:
P ( all left none turn right ) = 0.35 3 ( 1 0.25 ) 3 =   0.102   (3 s.f)
This is where I'm confused. For independent events should it not be the following:
P ( all left none turn right ) = P ( all left ) = 0.35 3 = 0.0429  (3 s.f)??
Edit:
I have realized I misunderstood the independence part of the question, but I'm still left confused over the answer. From the equation
P ( A B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) , how does P ( A B ) equal P(all left)?

Answer & Explanation

Everett Mclaughlin

Everett Mclaughlin

Beginner2022-09-06Added 16 answers

I think it might make the problem clearer to you if it was worded
Assume that the drivers choose direction independently of each other.
Notice that if person X does not make a right, then he either goes straight or makes a left. Then if person X makes a left and does not make a right, then person X makes a left. If all three make a left and all three don't make a right, then all three make a left. This is how A B = A, where A is "all left" and B is "none make a right".

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