Why am I not allowed to use P(A in B)=P(A)P(B) formula? Question: A survey of 1000 people determines that 80% like walking and 60% like biking, and all like at least one of the two activities. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person in this survey likes biking but not walking? What I did was use the formula: P(A in B)=P(A)P(B)=0.8⋅0.6=0.48 P(B)−P(A cap B)=P(A′ cap B)=0.6−0.48=0.12 but the answer should be 0.2. In the answer key, P(A cup B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A′ cap B) is used instead. Why?

atarentspe

atarentspe

Answered question

2022-09-07

Why am I not allowed to use P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) formula?
Question: A survey of 1000 people determines that 80% like walking and 60% like biking, and all like at least one of the two activities. What is the probability that a randomly chosen person in this survey likes biking but not walking?
What I did was use the formula:
P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) = 0.8 0.6 = 0.48
P ( B ) P ( A B ) = P ( A B ) = 0.6 0.48 = 0.12
but the answer should be 0.2.
In the answer key, P ( A B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B ) is used instead. Why?

Answer & Explanation

London Maldonado

London Maldonado

Beginner2022-09-08Added 13 answers

P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) only if A and B are independent.
In your case, A and B are not independent, since you know that if a person doesn't like walking (i.e., you have information about A), then they must like biking (i.e., from that information, you can conclude something about B).
Gavyn Whitehead

Gavyn Whitehead

Beginner2022-09-09Added 2 answers

Here it is easier to draw a contingency table: From the given informations you get
800 persons like walking
600 person like biking
1000 persons like at least one of walking and biking
This will end up in this table:
b i k i n g not biking walking 400 400 not walking 200 0
You see directly P ( biking not walking ) = 200 1000 = 0.2. To see that walking and biking are not independent, you only have to check whether P ( biking walking ) equals P(biking)P(walking) or not. But it's obvious P ( biking ) P ( walking ) = 0.6 0.8 = 0.48 0.2 = P ( biking walking )

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