Probability (independent?) events Hi everyone I have a question about the following problem: Events for a family: A_1 = ski, A_2= does not ski, B_1 = has children but none in 8-16, B_2 = has some children in 8-16, and B_3 = has no children. Also, P(A_1)=0.4, P(B_2)=0.35, P(B_1)=0.25 and P(A_1∩B_1)=0.075, P(A_1∩B_2)=0.245. Find P(A_2∩B_3).

Freddy Friedman 2022-07-23 Answered
Probability (independent?) events
Hi everyone I have a question about the following problem:
Events for a family: A 1 = ski, A 2 == does not ski, B 1 = has children but none in 8-16, B 2 = has some children in 8-16, and B 3 = has no children. Also, P ( A 1 ) = 0.4, P ( B 2 ) = 0.35, P ( B 1 ) = 0.25 and P ( A 1 B 1 ) = 0.075, P ( A 1 B 2 ) = 0.245. Find P ( A 1 B 1 ) = 0.075.
Here is my solution:
Since P(A1 and B1) = 0.075, P(A2 and B1) = 0.25-0.075= 0.175. Also since P(A1 and B2) = 0.245, P(A2 and B2) = 0.35 - 0.245 = 0.105. From this we can find P(A2 and B3) which is 0.6-0.175-0.105 = 0.32. But when I use the formula for independent events formula P ( A 2 B 3 ) = P ( A 2 ) P ( B 3 ) I get 0.24. Does this mean that the events are not independent? If so, how are these events not independent?
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Answers (2)

Sandra Randall
Answered 2022-07-24 Author has 17 answers
Yes, it means the events are not independent. If they were, you would could find a simpler solution, requiring less data. For instance, if you knew P ( A 2 ) and P ( B 3 ), you would already know the answer:
P ( A 2 B 3 ) = P ( A 2 ) P ( B 3 )
It is perfectly legal for events that appear not to have a direct connection to be independent. It just might be that you're looking at a small population (a small village?) where by pure chance you find a lot of families with small children who ski, but few families without children who ski. You could probably think up some "real world" rationalization for a correlation as well (like, people with children have less time and are less likely to ski, or - conversely - have more incentive to ski with their children).
By the way, since you got:
P ( A 2 B 3 ) > P ( A 2 ) P ( B 3 )
the two events are positively correlated. It means, intuitively, that if you select a random family, once you learn that A 2 holds then the probability of B 3 increases. Note that being positively correlated is symmetric, and correlation does not imply causation.
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smuklica8i
Answered 2022-07-25 Author has 3 answers

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New questions

The Porsche Club of America sponsors driver education events that provide high-performance driving instruction on actual racetracks. Because safety is a primary consideration at such events, many owners elect to install roll bars in their cars. Deegan Industries manufactures two types of roll bars for Porsches. Model DRB is bolted to the car using existing holes in the car's frame. Model DRW is a heavier roll bar that must be welded to the car's frame. Model DRB requires 20 pounds of a special high alloy steel, 40 minutes of manufacturing time, and 60 minutes of assembly time. Model DRW requires 25 pounds of the special high alloy steel, 100 minutes of manufacturing time, and 40 minutes of assembly time. Deegan's steel supplier indicated that at most 40,000 pounds of the high-alloy steel will be available next quarter. In addition, Deegan estimates that 2000 hours of manufacturing time and 1600 hours of assembly time will be available next quarter. The pro?t contributions are $200 per unit for model DRB and $280 per unit for model DRW. The linear programming model for this problem is as follows:
Max 200DRB + 280DRW
s.t.
20DRB + 25DRW 40,000 Steel Available
40DRB + 100DRW ? 120,000 Manufacturing minutes
60DRB + 40DRW ? 96,000 Assembly minutes
DRB, DRW ? 0
Optimal Objective Value = 424000.00000
Variable Value blackuced Cost
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DRB 1000.00000 0.00000
DRW 800.00000 0.00000
Constraint Slack/ Surplus Dual Value
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1 0.00000 8.80000
2 0.00000 0.60000
3 4000.00000 0.00000
Objective Allowable Allowable
Variable Coef?cient Increase Decrease
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DRB 200.00000 24.00000 88.00000
DRW 280.00000 220.00000 30.00000
RHS Allowable Allowable
Constraint Value Increase Decrease
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1 40000.00000 909.09091 10000.00000
2 120000.00000 40000.00000 5714.28571
3 96000.00000 Infnite 4000.00000
a. What are the optimal solution and the total profit contribution?
b. Another supplier offeblack to provide Deegan Industries with an additional 500 pounds of the steel alloy at $2 per pound. Should Deegan purchase the additional pounds of the steel alloy? Explain.
c. Deegan is considering using overtime to increase the available assembly time. What would you advise Deegan to do regarding this option? Explain.
d. Because of increased competition, Deegan is considering blackucing the price of model DRB such that the new contribution to profit is $175 per unit. How would this change in price affect the optimal solution? Explain.
e. If the available manufacturing time is increased by 500 hours, will the dual value for the manufacturing time constraint change? Explain.