Now, the company is conducting a phase 3 trial with 300 patients split 200/100 between the new drug and the old drug. What is the probability that the PFS will be greater for the patients taking the new drug than for those taking the old drug at the 5% level (P = 0.05) or better?
In other words, what is the probability that the phase 3 trial will be successful so that the FDA will presumably approve the drug? I want to know if the drug company is a good investment, which of course also depends upon the market capitalization of the company and the size of the potential market, but the first question is what the probability is of the drug trial being successful? Is there any way to get a handle on that based only on the P2 results?
Edit: P.S. This is not a homework problem, though it (or something like it) would seem to be a standard and useful problem.