Boy Born on a Tuesday - is it just a language trick? The following probability question appeared in

tinydancer27br

tinydancer27br

Answered question

2022-05-22

Boy Born on a Tuesday - is it just a language trick?
The following probability question appeared in an earlier thread:
I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?
The claim was that it is not actually a mathematical problem and it is only a language problem.
If one wanted to restate this problem formally the obvious way would be like so:
Definition: Sex is defined as an element of the set boy,girl.
Definition: Birthday is defined as an element of the set Monday,Tuesday,Wednesday,Thursday,Friday,Saturday,Sunday
Definition: A Child is defined to be an ordered pair: (sex ×birthday).
Let (x,y) be a pair of children,
Define an auxiliary predicate H ( s , b ) : ! ! s = boy  and  b = Tuesday.
Calculate P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy | H ( x )  or  H ( y ) )I don't see any other sensible way to formalize this question.
To actually solve this problem now requires no thought (infact it is thinking which leads us to guess incorrect answers), we just compute
P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy | H ( x )  or  H ( y ) ) = P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  ( H ( x )  or  H ( y ) ) ) P ( H ( x )  or  H ( y ) ) = P ( ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  H ( x ) )  or  ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  H ( y ) ) ) P ( H ( x ) ) + P ( H ( y ) ) P ( H ( x ) ) P ( H ( y ) ) = P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  x  born on Tuesday ) + P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  y  born on Tuesday ) P ( x  is a boy and  y  is a boy and  x  born on Tuesday and  y  born on Tuesday ) P ( H ( x ) ) + P ( H ( y ) ) P ( H ( x ) ) P ( H ( y ) ) = 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 7 + 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 7 1 / 2 1 / 2 1 / 7 1 / 7 1 / 2 1 / 7 + 1 / 2 1 / 7 1 / 2 1 / 7 1 / 2 1 / 7 = 13 / 27
Now what I am wondering is, does this refute the claim that this puzzle is just a language problem or add to it? Was there a lot of room for misinterpreting the questions which I just missed?

Answer & Explanation

Brooks Butler

Brooks Butler

Beginner2022-05-23Added 9 answers

There are even trickier aspects to this question. For example, what is the strategy of the guy telling you about his family? If he always mentions a boy first and not a daughter, we get one probability; if he talks about the sex of the first born child, we get a different probability. Your calculation makes a choice in this issue - you choose the version of "if the father has a boy and a girl, he'll mention the boy".
What I'm aiming to is this: the question is not well-defined mathematically. It has several possible interpretations, and as such the "problem" here is indeed of the language; or more correctly, the fact that a simple statement in English does not convey enough information to specify the precise model for the problem.
Let's look at a simplified version without days. The probability space for the make-up of the family is {BB, GB, BG, GG} (GB means "an older girl and a small boy", etc). We want to know what is P(BB|A) where A is determined by the way we interpret the statement about the boys. Now let's look at different possible interpretations.
1) If there is a boy in the family, the statement will mention him. In this case A={BB,BG,GB} and so the probability is 1/3.
2) If there is a girl in the family, the statement will mention her. In this case, since the statement talked about a boy, there are NO girls in the family. So A={BB} and so the probability is 1.
3) The statement talks about the sex of the firstborn. In this case A={BB,BG} and so the probability is 1/2.
The bottom line: The statement about the family looks "constant" to us, but it must be looked as a function from the random state of the family - and there are several different possible functions, from which you must choose one otherwise no probabilistic analysis of the situation will make sense.

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