Three manufacturing plants, say I, II and III, produce 20, 30 and 50 percent of a company’s output r

Heath Gilmore

Heath Gilmore

Answered question

2022-02-12

Three manufacturing plants, say I, II and III, produce 20, 30 and 50 percent of a company’s output respectively. What is the probability that a randomly-chosen item from the company’s warehouse is defective?
The manager of plant III is very quality conscious and only 1% of the items from that plant are defective. Plants I and II have defective rates of 3% and 5% respectively.
An item is selected at random from the company’s warehouse and found to be defective. What is the probability it was manufactured in plant III?

Answer & Explanation

taibidzhl

taibidzhl

Beginner2022-02-13Added 17 answers

1) The Reqd. Prob. =3.6%.
2) The Reqd. Prob. =253669.44%.
Let M1= the Event that the Unit is manufactured in Plant I.
M2 and M3 denote Events similar to M1.
Clearly, P(M1)=20%=210,P(M2)=310,P(M3)=510.
Suppose that, D denotes the Event that the chosen Unit is
Defective.
In the usual Notation of Conditional Prob., then, we are given that,
P(DM1)=1%=1100,P(DM2)=3100,and,P(DM3)=5100.
Now, (1): The Reqd. Prob. =P(D)=j=1j=3P(Mj)P(DMj)
=(210)(1100)+(310)(3100)+(510)(5100)
=361000=3.6%
Next, (2): The Reqd. Prob. =P(M3D)
=P(M3D)P(D)=P(DM3)P(M3)P(D)
=(5100)(510)361000=253669.44%

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