A construction company is currently bidding a job overseas in country

Concepcion Hale 2021-12-10 Answered
A construction company is currently bidding a job overseas in country X. The chance of winning the job depends on the current election results in country X. If party A wins the election, the chance of the company winning the job is 60%; otherwise ,there is only a 20% chance that the company will win the job. On the other hand, from poll data, the probability that party A will win the election is 0.85. compute the probability of the company's success in winning the job.

Expert Community at Your Service

  • Live experts 24/7
  • Questions are typically answered in as fast as 30 minutes
  • Personalized clear answers
Learn more

Solve your problem for the price of one coffee

  • Available 24/7
  • Math expert for every subject
  • Pay only if we can solve it
Ask Question

Expert Answer

lovagwb
Answered 2021-12-11 Author has 4238 answers
Step 1
Let us denote the event of winning the job by C.
\(\displaystyle{A}=\) the event that party A wins
\(\displaystyle{B}=\) the event that party A does not win
Given that \(\displaystyle{P}{\left({C}{\mid}{A}\right)}={60}\%={0.60}\)
\(\displaystyle{P}{\left({C}{\mid}{B}\right)}={1}-{0.60}={0.40}\)
\(\displaystyle{P}{\left({A}\right)}={0.85}\)
\(\displaystyle{P}{\left({B}\right)}={1}-{0.85}={0.15}\)
Step 2
The probability of the company's success in winning the job is:
P(C)
\(\displaystyle={P}{\left({A}\cap{C}\right)}+{P}{\left({B}\cap{C}\right)}\)
\(\displaystyle={P}{\left({A}\right)}{P}{\left({C}{\mid}{A}\right)}+{P}{\left({B}\right)}{P}{\left({C}{\mid}{B}\right)}\)
\(\displaystyle={0.85}{\left({0.60}\right)}+{0.15}{\left({0.40}\right)}\)
\(\displaystyle={0.57}\)
Answer: 0.57
Not exactly what you’re looking for?
Ask My Question
0
 

Expert Community at Your Service

  • Live experts 24/7
  • Questions are typically answered in as fast as 30 minutes
  • Personalized clear answers
Learn more

Relevant Questions

asked 2021-11-14
Two firms V and W consider bidding on a road-building job, which may or may not be awarded depending on the amounts of the bids. Firm V submits a bid and the probability is 0.8 that it will get the job provided firm W does not bid. The probability is 0.7 that W will be bid, and if it does, the probability that V will get the job is only 0.4
a) What is the probability that V will get the job?
b) If V gets the job, what is the probability that W did not bid?
asked 2021-09-16
Two firms V and W consider bidding on a road-building job, which may or may not be awarded depending on the amounts of the bids. Firm V submits a bid and the probability is 0.8 that it will get the job provided firm W does not bid. The probability is 0.7 that W will be bid, and if it does, the probability that V will get the job is only 0.4 What is the probability that V will get the job?
asked 2021-12-11
Let T be the time needed to complete a job at a certain factory. By using the historical data, we know that
\[P(T \le t)=\begin{cases}\frac{1}{16}t^{2}& for\ 0 \le t \le 4\\1& for\ t \geq 4 \end{cases}\]
a. Find the probability that the job is completed in less than one hour, i.e., find \(\displaystyle{P}{\left({T}\le{1}\right)}\).
b. Find the probability that the job needs more than 2 hours.
c. Find the probability that \(\displaystyle{1}\le{T}\le{3}\).
asked 2021-10-22
An oil company is bidding for the rights to drill a well in field A and awell in field B. The probability it will drill a well in field A is 40%. Ifit does, the probability the well will be successful is 45%, The probability it will drill a well in field B is 30% If'it does, the probability the well will be successful is 55%, Calculate ‘each of the following probabilities: Probability of both a successful well in field A and a successful well in field B,
asked 2021-10-20
An oil company is bidding for the rights to drill a well in field A and awell in field B. The probability it will drill a well in field A is 40%. Ifit does, the probability the well will be successful is 45%, The probability it will drill a well in field B is 30% If'it does, the probability the well will be successful is 55%, Calculate ‘each of the following probabilities: Probability of a successful well in field B
asked 2021-10-20
An oil company is bidding for the rights to drill a well in field A and awell in field B. The probability it will drill a well in field A is 40%. Ifit does, the probability the well will be successful is 45%, The probability it will drill a well in field B is 30% If'it does, the probability the well will be successful is 55%, Calculate ‘each of the following probabilities: Probability of a successful well in field A,
asked 2021-09-21
An oil company is bidding for the rights to drill a well in field A and awell in field B. The probability it will drill a well in field A is 40%. Ifit does, the probability the well will be successful is 45%, The probability it will drill a well in field B is 30% If'it does, the probability the well will be successful is 55%, Calculate ‘each of the following probabilities: Probability of both a successful well in field A and a successful well in field B,
...