A large number N of people are subjected to a blood investigation. Thi

chanyingsauu7

chanyingsauu7

Answered question

2021-11-17

A large number N of people are subjected to a blood investigation. This investigation can be organized in two ways.
(1) The blood of each person is investigated separately. In this case N analyses are needed.
(2) The blood of k people are mixed and the mixture is analysed. If the result is negative, then this single analysis is sufficient for k persons. But if it is positive, then the blood of each one must be subsequently investigated separately, and in toto for k people, k+1 analysis are needed. It is assumed that the probability of a positive result (p) is the same for all people and that the results of the analysis are independent in the probabilistic sense.
For what k is the minimum expected number of necessary analysis attained?

Answer & Explanation

Tamara Donohue

Tamara Donohue

Beginner2021-11-18Added 11 answers

Given:
Let N represents negative, P represents positive
In a sample of k people, the test comes negative only if none of the k people's blood tests positive.
So, P(N)=(1p)k
The total test population is divided into N/k groups of k people each
Expected Number of test, E(X) is:
E(X)=NK(P(N)+kP(P))
E(X)=NK(1p)k+N(1(1p)k)
E(X)=N(1+(1p)k(1k)k)
Now, for the minimum number of tests, differentiate above equation w.r.t. k,
k((1p)k(1k)k)=1kk(1p)kln(1p)(1p)kk2
=(1p)kk2(k(1k)ln(1p)1)
We will equate this result to zero for minimum condition,
k(k1)ln(1p)+1=0
Approximating the logarithms by ln(1p)p for small p, we obtain
k2k1p=0,
Solving this quadratic, we get
k1=12+14+1p,k2=1214+1p
For small p, both solutions are close and given by
k1k21p

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