a) Whether the manager is correct or not. b) To identify

Cabiolab

Cabiolab

Answered question

2021-09-19

a) Whether the manager is correct or not.
b) To identify: The probability distribution which is suitable for the given scenario and the whether the distribution of the number of pregnancies is descrete or continuous.

Answer & Explanation

Leonard Stokes

Leonard Stokes

Skilled2021-09-20Added 98 answers

a) ART is a fertility method; using this method, women were aided in pregnancy. A random sample of 10 ART cycles was selected and the manager thinks that it is impossible to select a sample which does not result in a pregnancy. 
Calculation: 
The probability of getting 0 pregnancies out of 10 samples is calculated as follows: 
From the pie chart, it can be observed that the probability of getting pregnant is 0.368. 
Substitute n as 10, p as 0.368 and q as 0.632(=10.368) and the value of x is 0. 
Software procedure: 
Step-by-step procedure for calculating the probability is given below: 
- Choose Calc>Probability Distribution> Binomial Distribution 
- Choose Probability. 
- Enter Number of trials as 10 and Event probability as 0.368. 
- In input constants, enter 0. 
- Click OK. 
Output obtained from MINITAB is given below: 
Probability Density Function 
Binomial with n=10  and  p=0.368 
xP(X=x)00.0101665 
Thus, the probabilityof getting 0 pregnancies out of 10 samples is 0.010. 
Unusual: 
The event is considered to be unusual or impossible to happen when the probability value is less than 0.05. 
The probability of getting 0 pregnancies out of 10 samples is 0.018, which is less than 0.05. Hence, the event of selecting a non-pregnant ART cycle would be impossible. 
b) Justification: 
A binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution; it has the following properties: 
- Each trial is independent from the other. 
- There are only two possible outcomes: success or failure. 
- The probability of success p remains constant. 
- The random variable x represents the number of successful trials. 
Here, the trial or the ART cycles are independent from each other. The outcomes obtained from the ART cycles will either lead to pregnancy or not. The probability to get pregnant is 0.368, which remains constant throughout the experiment. The random variable x represents the number of pregnancies obtained from 10 ART cycles. 
Thus, all the properties of binomial distribution are satisfied for the given scenario.

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