John is a great fortune teller. Assume that we know three facts:If John tells you that a lottery ticket will win, it will win with probability 0.99.

Josalynn

Josalynn

Answered question

2021-09-24

John is a great fortune teller. Assume that we know three facts:
If John tells you that a lottery ticket will win, it will win with probability 0.99.
If John tells you that a lottery ticket will not win, it will not win with probability 0.99999.
When John sees a ticket he predicts with probability 10~° that a ticket is a winning ticket.
This also means that with probability 1— 10-5, John predicts that a ticket will not win.
a. Given a ticket, what is the probability that it wins?
b. What is the probability that John correctly predicts a winning ticket?

Answer & Explanation

Viktor Wiley

Viktor Wiley

Skilled2021-09-25Added 84 answers

Explanation of this problem

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