# Give a complete answer and describe Bayes' theorem

Question
Modeling data distributions
Give a complete answer and describe Bayes' theorem

2020-12-15
Bayes' theorem, named after 18th-century British mathematician Thomas Bayes, is a mathematical formula for determining conditional probability Conditional probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a previous outcome occurring. Bayes' theorem provides a way to revise existing predictions or theories (update probabilities) given new or additional evidence. In finance, Bayes' theorem can be used to rate the risk of lending money to potential borrowers. Bayes' theorem is also called Bayes' Rule or Bayes' Law and is the foundation of the field of Bayesian statistics.
Applications of the theorem are widespread and not limited to the financial realm. As an example, Bayes' theorem can be used to determine the accuracy of medical test results by taking into consideration how likely any given person is to have a disease and the general accuracy of the test. Bayes' theorem relies on incorporating prior probability distributions in order to generate posterior probabilities. Prior probability, in Bayesian statistical inference, is the probability of an event before new data is collected. This is the best rational assessment of the probability of an outcome based on the current knowledge before an experiment is performed. Posterior probability is the revised probability of an event occurring after taking into consideration new information. Posterior probability is calculated by updating the prior probability by using Bayes' theorem. In statistical terms, the posterior probability is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred.
Bayes' theorem thus gives the probability of an event based on new information that is, or may be related, to that event. The formula can also be used to see how the probability of an event occurring is affected by hypothetical new information, supposing the new information will turn out to be true. For instance, say a single card is drawn from a complete deck of 52 cards. The probability that the card is a king is four divided by 52, which equals $$\displaystyle\frac{1}{{13}}$$ or approximately $$7.69\%$$. Remember that there are four kings in the deck. Now, suppose it is revealed that the selected card is a face card. The probability the selected card is a king, given it is a face card, is four divided by 12, or approximately $$33.3\%$$, as there are 12 face cards in a deck.
Formula For Bayes' Theorem
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({A}{|}{B}\right)}=\frac{{{P}{\left({A}\bigcap{B}\right)}}}{{{P}{\left({B}\right)}}}={\left({P}{\left({A}\right)}\cdot{P}{\left({B}{|}{A}\right)}\right)}{\left({P}{\left({B}\right)}\right)}$$
where
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({A}\right)}=$$ The probability of A occuring
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({B}\right)}=$$ The probability of B occuring
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({A}{|}{B}\right)}=$$ The probability of A given B
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({B}{|}{A}\right)}=$$ The probability of B given A
$$\displaystyle{P}{\left({A}\bigcap{B}\right)}=$$ The probability of both A and B occuring

### Relevant Questions

Give a complete and correct answer to the question asked what Posterior Probabilities?
Aurora is planning to participate in an event at her school's field day that requires her to complete tasks at various stations in the fastest time possible. To prepare for the event, she is practicing and keeping track of her time to complete each station. The x-coordinate is the station number, and the y-coordinate is the time in minutes since the start of the race that she completed the task. $$\displaystyle{\left({1},{3}\right)},{\left({2},{6}\right)},{\left({3},{12}\right)},{\left({4},{24}\right)}$$
Part A: Is this data modeling an algebraic sequence or a geometric sequence? Explain your answer.
Part B: Use a recursive formula to determine the time she will complete station 5.
Part C: Use an explicit formula to find the time she will complete the 9th station.
Use the table from the Theoretical Distribution section to calculate the following answers. Round your answers to four decimal places. $$P(x = 3) = _______________________$$
$$P(1 < x < 4) = _______________________$$
$$P(x \geq 8) = _______________________$$ Use the data from the Organize the Data section to calculate the following answers. Round your answers to four decimal places. $$RF(x = 3) = _______________________$$
$$RF(1 < x < 4) = _______________________$$
$$RF(x \geq 8) = _______________________$$ Discussion Questions 1. Knowing that data vary, describe three similarities between the graphs and distributions of the theoretical, empirical, and simulation distributions. Use complete sentences.
Solve and give the correct answer with using second derivative of the function as follows $$\displaystyle f{{\left({x}\right)}}={\left({x}+{9}\right)}^{2}$$
In an experiment designed to study the effects of illumination level on task performance (“Performance of Complex Tasks Under Different Levels of Illumination,” J. Illuminating Eng., 1976: 235–242), subjects were required to insert a fine-tipped probe into the eyeholes of ten needles in rapid succession both for a low light level with a black background and a higher level with a white background. Each data value is the time (sec) required to complete the task.
$$\displaystyle{b}{e}{g}\in{\left\lbrace{a}{r}{r}{a}{y}\right\rbrace}{\left\lbrace{\left|{c}\right|}{c}{\mid}\right\rbrace}{h}{l}\in{e}{S}{u}{b}{j}{e}{c}{t}&{\left({1}\right)}&{\left({2}\right)}&{\left({3}\right)}&{\left({4}\right)}&{\left({5}\right)}&{\left({6}\right)}&{\left({7}\right)}&{\left({8}\right)}&{\left({9}\right)}\backslash{h}{l}\in{e}{B}{l}{a}{c}{k}&{25.85}&{28.84}&{32.05}&{25.74}&{20.89}&{41.05}&{25.01}&{24.96}&{27.47}\backslash{h}{l}\in{e}{W}{h}{i}{t}{e}&{18.28}&{20.84}&{22.96}&{19.68}&{19.509}&{24.98}&{16.61}&{16.07}&{24.59}\backslash{h}{l}\in{e}{e}{n}{d}{\left\lbrace{a}{r}{r}{a}{y}\right\rbrace}$$
Does the data indicate that the higher level of illumination yields a decrease of more than 5 sec in true average task completion time? Test the appropriate hypotheses using the P-value approach.
An automobile tire manufacturer collected the data in the table relating tire pressure x​ (in pounds per square​ inch) and mileage​ (in thousands of​ miles). A mathematical model for the data is given by
$$\displaystyle​ f{{\left({x}\right)}}=-{0.554}{x}^{2}+{35.5}{x}-{514}.$$
$$\begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline x & Mileage \\ \hline 28 & 45 \\ \hline 30 & 51\\ \hline 32 & 56\\ \hline 34 & 50\\ \hline 36 & 46\\ \hline \end{array}$$
​(A) Complete the table below.
$$\begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline x & Mileage & f(x) \\ \hline 28 & 45 \\ \hline 30 & 51\\ \hline 32 & 56\\ \hline 34 & 50\\ \hline 36 & 46\\ \hline \end{array}$$
​(Round to one decimal place as​ needed.)
$$A. 20602060xf(x)$$
A coordinate system has a horizontal x-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2 and a vertical y-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2. Data points are plotted at (28,45), (30,51), (32,56), (34,50), and (36,46). A parabola opens downward and passes through the points (28,45.7), (30,52.4), (32,54.7), (34,52.6), and (36,46.0). All points are approximate.
$$B. 20602060xf(x)$$
Acoordinate system has a horizontal x-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2 and a vertical y-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2.
Data points are plotted at (43,30), (45,36), (47,41), (49,35), and (51,31). A parabola opens downward and passes through the points (43,30.7), (45,37.4), (47,39.7), (49,37.6), and (51,31). All points are approximate.
$$C. 20602060xf(x)$$
A coordinate system has a horizontal x-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2 and a vertical y-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2. Data points are plotted at (43,45), (45,51), (47,56), (49,50), and (51,46). A parabola opens downward and passes through the points (43,45.7), (45,52.4), (47,54.7), (49,52.6), and (51,46.0). All points are approximate.
$$D.20602060xf(x)$$
A coordinate system has a horizontal x-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2 and a vertical y-axis labeled from 20 to 60 in increments of 2. Data points are plotted at (28,30), (30,36), (32,41), (34,35), and (36,31). A parabola opens downward and passes through the points (28,30.7), (30,37.4), (32,39.7), (34,37.6), and (36,31). All points are approximate.
​(C) Use the modeling function​ f(x) to estimate the mileage for a tire pressure of 29
$$\displaystyle​\frac{{{l}{b}{s}}}{{{s}{q}}}\in.$$ and for 35
$$\displaystyle​\frac{{{l}{b}{s}}}{{{s}{q}}}\in.$$
The mileage for the tire pressure $$\displaystyle{29}\frac{{{l}{b}{s}}}{{{s}{q}}}\in.$$ is
The mileage for the tire pressure $$\displaystyle{35}\frac{{{l}{b}{s}}}{{{s}{q}}}$$ in. is
(Round to two decimal places as​ needed.)
(D) Write a brief description of the relationship between tire pressure and mileage.
A. As tire pressure​ increases, mileage decreases to a minimum at a certain tire​ pressure, then begins to increase.
B. As tire pressure​ increases, mileage decreases.
C. As tire pressure​ increases, mileage increases to a maximum at a certain tire​ pressure, then begins to decrease.
D. As tire pressure​ increases, mileage increases.
1. Find each of the requested values for a population with a mean of $$? = 40$$, and a standard deviation of $$? = 8$$ A. What is the z-score corresponding to $$X = 52?$$ B. What is the X value corresponding to $$z = - 0.50?$$ C. If all of the scores in the population are transformed into z-scores, what will be the values for the mean and standard deviation for the complete set of z-scores? D. What is the z-score corresponding to a sample mean of $$M=42$$ for a sample of $$n = 4$$ scores? E. What is the z-scores corresponding to a sample mean of $$M= 42$$ for a sample of $$n = 6$$ scores? 2. True or false: a. All normal distributions are symmetrical b. All normal distributions have a mean of 1.0 c. All normal distributions have a standard deviation of 1.0 d. The total area under the curve of all normal distributions is equal to 1 3. Interpret the location, direction, and distance (near or far) of the following zscores: $$a. -2.00 b. 1.25 c. 3.50 d. -0.34$$ 4. You are part of a trivia team and have tracked your team’s performance since you started playing, so you know that your scores are normally distributed with $$\mu = 78$$ and $$\sigma = 12$$. Recently, a new person joined the team, and you think the scores have gotten better. Use hypothesis testing to see if the average score has improved based on the following 8 weeks’ worth of score data: $$82, 74, 62, 68, 79, 94, 90, 81, 80$$. 5. You get hired as a server at a local restaurant, and the manager tells you that servers’ tips are $42 on average but vary about $$12 (\mu = 42, \sigma = 12)$$. You decide to track your tips to see if you make a different amount, but because this is your first job as a server, you don’t know if you will make more or less in tips. After working 16 shifts, you find that your average nightly amount is$44.50 from tips. Test for a difference between this value and the population mean at the $$\alpha = 0.05$$ level of significance.
2005 $17.6. 2007$18.1
2009 $19.5 2011$20.7
2013 $21.8 What prediction does the formula modeling this data give for average yearly tuition and required fees for the university for the academic year beginning in 2019? asked 2020-12-12 Census data are often used to obtain probability distributions for various random variables. Census data for families in a particular state with a combined income of$50,000 or more show that 22% of these families have no children, 30% have one child, 27% have two children, and 21% have three children. From this information, construct the probability distribution for x, where x represents the number of children per family for this income group. (Give your answers correct to two decimal places.) $$P(0 \text{children}) =$$
$$P(1 \text{child}) =$$
$$P(2 \text{children}) =$$
$$P(3 \text{children}) =$$