An airline claims that there is a 0.10 probability that a coach-class ticket holder who flies frequently will be upgraded to first class on any flight. This outcome is independent from flight to flight. Sam is a frequent flier who always purchases coach-class tickets. (a) What is the probability that Sam's first upgrade will occur after the third flight? (b) What is the probability that Sam will be upgraded exactly 2 times in his next 20 flights? (c) Sam will take 104 flights next year. Would you be surprised if Sam receives more than 20 upgrades to first class during the year?

pilleriakLa

pilleriakLa

Answered question

2022-11-29

An airline claims that there is a 0.10 probability that a coach-class ticket holder who flies frequently will be upgraded to first class on any flight. This outcome is independent from flight to flight. Sam is a frequent flier who always purchases coach-class tickets.
(a) What is the probability that Sam's first upgrade will occur after the third flight?
(b) What is the probability that Sam will be upgraded exactly 2 times in his next 20 flights?
(c) Sam will take 104 flights next year. Would you be surprised if Sam receives more than 20 upgrades to first class during the year?

Answer & Explanation

Bernard Walker

Bernard Walker

Beginner2022-11-30Added 7 answers

a. ( 1 0.10 ) × ( 1 0.10 ) = 0.9 × 0.9 = 0.81.
Probability of getting upgraded on the third flight is 0.10, so net probability is 0.081
b. ( 0.10 ) 2 × ( 1 0.10 ) 18 = 0.0015
c. 20 104 = 0.1923

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